How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine β a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than Netanyahu β a situation that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement β and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.
The following day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.
The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he remarked.
But the president of Ukraine later commented on the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine β for Ukraine β Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region β including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines β a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power β and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.