🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.